The Sanford Project

• Will it be the dutiful husband? If so, chances are he will listen to the First Lady (and over 70% of polled Americans) and nominate a woman to replace Justice O'Connor. The likely choice, then, is Maura Corrigan of the Michigan Supreme Court.
• Will it be the man with a sympathetic ear to Hispanic America? Bush has championed a number of causes dear to the Hispanic community, and this may be another. If so, he will almost certainly nominate a Hispanic to the bench, but it won't be Alberto Gonzales. Bush needs an easier nomination process than that. The obvious choice, Gonzales aside, is Emilio Garza of the 4th Circuit.
• Will it be the loyalist? The President has certainly stood by those who have supported both him and his conservative causes through the years...sometimes making questionable decisions in the process. If so, the nominee, unwisely, will likely be John G. Roberts of the D.C. Circuit.
• Will it be the ideologue? Certainly, the President has shown a willingness to support ideas which follow a hard, ideological line...and a court appointment in this direction would be no different. If so, the nominee will likely be the mini-Scalia, Samuel A. Alito of the 3rd circuit.
• Will it be the businessman? The President comes from a business background, and has never been afraid to think somewhat out of the box, relying on the support of wealthy allies to defy both the platform of his party, its Congressional leaders, and political logic in the process. If he does this...and, really, this is a stab in the dark...I think he nominates the appointed political advisor for the search process, former Senator Fred Dalton Thompson of Tennessee. Hey, it's not like he hasn't done THAT before.

Which will it be? Christ, I dunno. Since O'Connor resignation, I've said in numerous forums that the President will seek to build political capital with this nomination, not spend it. That fits with his political history: he only puts his wealth where long term, guaranteed victories exist, and despite the lifetime appointment, a court nomination is not one of those. So, I think the President will go with a safe choice: a strong conservative, but one who will likely be too popular to look beyond. Someone with political experience...someone with wise judicial opinions, but no paper trail on really controversial subjects...and someone who will cause little controversy. In other words, while I'm loathe to say this...politically, he needs a slightly more conservative Sandra Day O'Connor.

Ladies and Gentleman, my official guess: Maura Corrigan of Michigan.

# posted by eirishis @ 5:35 PM